Is Robert Griffin a Better Prospect than Andrew Luck? Ten
Reasons Why He's NOT
From
last May until December, there was little debate who the top
quarterback prospect in the 2012 NFL Draft was. Andrew Luck was the
apple of every team's eye, and chants/twitter hash-tags/street signs
gladly displayed "Suck for Luck" in hopes of their team getting that
first pick.
But now, since Griffin has become a mixture of a Cam Newton hyped athlete with a media darling, it has become a debate as to
which path the Colts should take. To me, the answer is easy: pick
Andrew Luck. Here's why.
1. Coaching Around Him
I'll
first say that Art Briles of Baylor is a heck of a coach, and his
offense combined with he and his staff's development of Robert Griffin
has been remarkable. But Andrew Luck has had the pleasure and rare
benefit of having a former NFL offensive coach in Greg Roman and former
NFL Pro Bowl quarterback Jim Harbaugh showing him the ropes as a
quarterback. His knowledge of the game based purely on the experience
in working with those two now very successful NFL coaches gives him a
leg up on most quarterbacks coming out of college ever.
2. Pro Style-Scheme
Coming
out of college, they're are obvious benefits to hailing from a Pro
Style offense. For one, it gives the quarterback that instant
confidence of consistently utilizing both the drop back and the shotgun
formations to his advantage. Also, it gives a better understanding to
how each position on the field is used, where as the spread based
offense, in which Griffin mostly played in, is more about match-ups and
limiting responsibilities.
3. Better NFL Built Body Type
This
may seem like a small aspect to evaluating a quarterback, but being
able to take a hit without a consistent risk of injury has become a
valuable asset for a team looking at quarterbacks. We've seen how Sam Bradford and Christian Ponder being "injury-prone" in college has
translated to consistent NFL injuries. While neither Luck nor Griffin
are considered "injury-prone", Griffin is a bit more fragilely built,
and based on his style of play, he'll be taking a lot more hits as a
scramble-heavy quarterback, especially early on.
4. Mental Preparedness
Based
on all I've heard from Griffin and people around the program, I have no
question about his work ethic, devotion to the film room, and he
wanting to improve himself. It's one thing to want to develop based on
the film room and understanding scheme. But Andrew Luck has a much
better understanding of now only how to improve himself, but how
defenses are planning on attacking him based on his experience
and football IQ. It's rare to see a prospect like Luck who as
soon as he gets into the league, he has "coach on the field" capability.
5. Pre-Snap Ability
One
of Griffin's biggest progressions this year was his ability to
initially come off the snap and realize where he should go with the
ball on a fairly consistent basis. While it's an important skill set,
it's not nearly as impressive as Andrew Luck. Luck had the
responsibility to go to the line of scrimmage with three plays in one
formation, and pick the play that best fit the defensive alignment. I'd
wager that some current NFL quarterbacks would struggle with that.
That's a skill set and a defensive recognition ability that Robert
Griffin likely will never be able to attain at the level Luck has, and
is crucial for being able to consistently pick apart defenses from the
pocket.
6. Consistent Mechanics/Footwork
It's obvious
that Robert Griffin will need fine tuning in his game-action mechanics
and footwork. His arm slot in his release isn't consistent on all
throws, his feet in the pocket get too wide and unbalanced, and he
struggles to reset his feet properly under pressure. Luck isn't perfect
mechanically and does have a tendency to sling the ball without proper
mechanics if he anticipates his second read too quickly, and he doesn't
always use his legs to drive the ball down the field. With Luck,
however, his mechanics are consistent and easily coachable, while
Griffin's at times are a bit erratic and will take a near overhaul in
his footwork for him to develop sound in-pocket ability as well as
downfield passing outside the pocket without running.
7. Read Progression Confidence
Along
with his pre-snap ability, Griffin developed more second and even third
read concepts into his game, which has turned him into more than just
an athlete, high velocity passer into a quarterback who can make some
NFL reads. However, my main concern with Griffin is that he doesn't
have the confidence to consistently release the ball on his second
reads, and tends to either be delayed or hesitates long enough for the
opening to be gone. That hesitation is an issue with many quarterbacks
that have struggled early in the NFL. As for Luck, he has a great feel
for how the play is developing, shifts his eyes very well across the
field to the second and third reads, and anticipates the routes very
well with consistently well timed balls.
8. Decisiveness as a Passer
Again,
going back to that second read release, Griffin's hesitation and his
lack of decisiveness will continue to be an issue in the NFL. In the
pocket, he struggles to trust that not only the second read receiver's
route will be where he envisions, but also seems to not have a great
grasp for how the defense is reacting to the routes after that initial
read. Outside the pocket, he does sling the ball well, but often it's
not the correct read when he does deliver downfield. As for Luck, he
has complete faith in his pre-snap reads and anticipates routes so
well. Generally, his interceptions or poorly timed passes were due to
poor routes by the receiver, unexpected/right-place-right-time
reactions by defenders, or just poorly released balls, all of which are
hard to correct and not a major issue as a passer.
9. Poise, Confidence in the Pocket
As
many respected evaluators outside of the NFL as well as NFL team
personnel will agree, being a successful quarterback starts from the
pocket. In short, Griffin struggles to pick teams apart in the pocket,
and after the initial read, Griffin looks consistently flustered and
either uses poor footwork and mechanics, or tries to escape the pocket
and make a play with his feet. While that brings excitement and maybe
some big plays, it's not a consistent way to win the NFL. Luck stands
tall in the pocket, keeping fundamental mechanics and footwork, and
doesn't rely on escaping the pocket, though he is able to with his
under-rated athleticism.
10. Touch Between Levels
This
may be the most indicative characteristic of initial and, without
developmental time, long term success of an NFL quarterback, especially
in long term, playoff hopes. Quarterbacks in the NFL need to not only
be able to read the levels of a defense (first level is the defensive
line, second is the linebackers and short-zoning corners, third is the
safeties or deep-zoning corners) but also be able to place the ball in
this areas. Griffin, like many young, developing quarterbacks, try to
rely on arm strength or anticipation of openings too much, something
more athletic linebackers and more creative defensive coordinators will
take advantage of in the NFL (see Mark Sanchez's abilities). Luck has
displayed an elite combination of anticipation of the defense and arm
strength control in between these levels, and can both throw around and
above man coverage as well as between and overtop-underneath these
levels consistently.
Eric Galko is a contributing NFL scout for Patriots Insider at
Scout.com.
Eric Galko is the Owner, Director
of Scouting of Optimum
Scouting and lead editor for OptimumScouting.com. He
has been scouting college football for eight
years, and for pro teams and other sports professionals for the last
four years. Eric is also a member of the
FWAA.
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