AGAINST THE SPREAD
By Chris, the Impaler
On April 22, 2004 Arizona Cardinal defensive safety and US Army Ranger Cpl.
Pat Tillman was killed in action by what was reported as 'friendly fire' on
a road in Afghanistan near the town of Sperah, at that point in the war 110
US soldiers had been killed in Operation Enduring Freedom, 39 in action; last
week that number went over the 1000 persons dead plateau. While most of those
soldiers died fighting for our great nation, our soldiers generally do not turn
down a $3.6 million NFL contract in 2002 to join the Army. The question is would
you have made the same decision if given the opportunity?
I wouldn't. It is not that I don't have the mettle to fight for this country,
but more that I'd love to set my family up for life with a sweet NFL contract
rather than fight a war (as it appears many other players in the NFL decided
as well). Yeah, that and I am not a hero.
Tillman made, after the 9/11 attacks, a decision that was both selfless and
heroic. Granted these words are bandied about in the media so often that they
now fail to capture the imagination as anything more than a pedestrian description
of a person's action during an event of consequence.
In the post millennium world is it possible that there are too many heroes
rather than not enough? Or is it that we are so desperate for heroes that when
a real one comes along we freak out and lump them in with everyone else?
In either case, if you ask his youngest brother, Rich Tillman, "Pat is
just dead, he's just f'n dead."
This weekend our own "heroes", the New England Patriots, 2004 Champions
of the World (well really the US since they don't play other countries), travel
to Sun Burn Stadium for the Arizona Cardinals' home opener dubbed "Pat
Tillman Day'. A day slated for remembering a modern day hero by the US Armed
Forces, politicians looking for a campaign edge, coaches, players (old and new),
fanatics and the National Football League.
If you watch the game on Sunday, take a look on Arizona's uniforms and look
for the patch they'll be wearing to commemorate Tillman's ultimate sacrifice
for his, mine and your country. This Sunday's tilt is more than another game
in the desert for Denny Green's Cardinals. It is both a day of public mourning
as well as rejoicing for a hero. And don't think for one sun drenched moment
that the Spirit of Pat Tillman won't turn this ordinary football team into something
larger than the game or themselves. Whether you bleed Cardinal Red or Patriot
Blue, never discount the power of a fallen soldier.
I am probably not the only one who noticed that the Patriots had a difficult
time plugging the holes in the run defense. Especially, when an almost over
the hill RB ran roughshod over a Patriots Defense that allowed 202 yards rushing
against the Dolts! Moreover, the fact that last year the Patriots allowed 6.25
points per home game was eclipsed by the Colts' 24 points, and on the road the
Pats give up more than double that.
This week on the surface it looks like a banged up Cardinals OL and underwhelming
offense is the salve that will cure the DL line woes. Bill Belichick is definitely
concerned about his team's run defense, but a weak Arizona OL, injured Marcel Shipp/Anquan Boldin and then a bye week should give the Patriots some time to
cure the ills that ails. But will they cover against the spread?
Meanwhile, last week the public loved the Rams at home against the Cardinals
and that drove the number all the way up to 11 points by kick-off. However,
while the Cardinals lost their opener 17-10, Cardinal QB Josh McCown completed
18-of-29 passes for 181 yards in his first career season-opener and fourth career
start (9th game overall) and Emmitt Smith, the N-F-L's career rushing leader,
had 87 yards and a TD against the Rams. First round pick and one time Denny
Green ball boy, rookie Larry Fitzgerald, led the Cardinals with 70 yards receiving.
If you do not have a television package that allows you to tune into every single
game on the NFL card, I'll mention something that is not readily apparent when
you read the stat sheet from the game. One play changed everything. Linebacker
James Darling had a 95-yard interception return for a touchdown called back
when LeVar Woods got flagged for holding late in the fourth quarter. This was
equal to a fourteen-point swing that eventually cost the Cards an upset in St.
Louis.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants has installed the Patriots as an 8-point road
favorite, but that line will probably go down, as the money loves home cooking.
Gamblers will have to lay -3.80 on the line if they want to back the 1-0 defending
champions. Cardinals' backers will earn +3.10 return on their money line investment.
The over/under is listed at 42 and after last weekend's debacle we won't be
looking at the total in this game.
Last week we discussed the system play regarding the winners of the Championship
Game. I should have also mentioned that it works for the loser of the Championship
Game as well. Over the past five seasons the loser of the title game also loses
the following season home opener. Carolina made that six when they lost to the
Green Bay Packers on national television on Monday night.
Part two of this system play states that while the winner of the Championship
game usually wins and covers their first game of the new season (the Pats pushed)
they lose their next three games outright and then win the fifth game of the
season, to start 2-3. However, after last week's game I think we are going to
abandon this system in favor of the Pat Tillman factor.
The heat should also play a factor as temperatures at Sun Devil stadium are
forecasted for a dry 109 degrees. If you are going to the game you should note
that there is a list of acceptable items including diaper bags (but only if
they're accompanied by a baby) and empty personal misters. Prohibited items
include box cutters, coolers and long poles (obviously the Impaler won't be
going to this game).
Those looking to increase their fun on the Arizona game should note that the
Cardinals were 6-2 as a home dog last year while the hometown hero's are only
3-4 as a road favorite over the past three years. Last week home cooking was
2-1 against the number as Miami was the only home dog that did not cover. However,
we all know the 16 game win streak the Patriots have been on, but it is just
that, a winning, not a covering, streak.
Week 1 Recap
A quick review of last week's column shows that we were dead on with the 3-point
margin of victory.
But the faithful, though, don't want to sweat out the game. Why pick the hard
ones? Consider that Patriots-Colts tilt will feature two of the leagues best
kickers (QBs, RBs, and WRs as well) and while the spread squats at 3 points
it means that the best probable outcome for Patriots' backers dropping a dime
on the line is a push. I hate to say it, but this game has vigorish all over
it so we'll eschew the side play for a total play.
While the total play (under 45) put a 440 unit dent in the envelope for the
Hurricane Ivan emergency Ketel One fund, we realize that hindsight is better
as foresight and that the under 45 opinion was not a good decision.
Week 2
Impaler Perspective: Spirit of Pat Tillman +8 for 440 units
Impaler Perspective: Spirit of Pat Tillman for 200 units to win on the ML.
YTD
0-1
-440
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