Patriots - Colts: Statistically Speaking

The New England Patriots are reeling from injury, roster turnover and have looked vulnerable to good teams this season. The Indianapolis Colts have methodically taken care of business where it mattered most, on the score board. Patriots Insider Chris Goodhue takes a look at the numbers and shares some keys to the game.

Patriots - Colts: Statistically Speaking
By Chris Goodhue

The Patriots will enter the second half of the season with a huge boost in momentum if they can dispose of the Indianapolis Colts on Monday night. On the offensive side for New England, the name of the game will be ball control. In last year’s Divisional Playoffs, the Pats ate up 37:43 of the game clock, thereby holding the Colts to a meager 22:17 of possession, and 3 points. They would be wise to try the same strategy this year.

Dillon's Impact:

Of course, anyone knows that the best way to use the clock to your advantage is to run the ball relentlessly. Corey Dillon may be banged up, but it looks as there is no choice but for him to play, now that Patrick Pass is nursing a sore hammy, and Amos Zeroue was cut loose to make way for free-agent FB Heath Evans. Dillon played well vs. Buffalo after missing Week 6 at Denver, and resting on the bye week.

Here are Dillon's numbers game by game:

Wk	Team	Carries	Yards	Av.	TDs
1	Oakland	23	63	2.7	2
2	Carolina	14	36	2.6	0
3	Pittsburgh	22	61	2.8	2
4	San Diego	14	63	4.5	1
5	Atlanta	23	106	4.6	0
6	Denver	dnp	-	-	-
7	Bye	-	-	-	-
8	Buffalo	18	72	4.0	2
TOTALS		114	401	3.5	7

Colts Rush Defense:

The young left side of the Pats line is key again, and this week’s match-up is tougher than last week’s as rookie OT Nick Kazcur will take on All-Pro DE Dwight Freeney. If he can be helped with double teams from TE Daniel Graham, Dillon may have enough clearance to unload on the smallish linebackers of Indianapolis.

The Colts rush defense is better than its previous incarnation, as they’ve allowed only 2 rushing TD’s all season, but opposing rushers are averaging 4.5 yards per carry against them, and they’ve only faced 1 RB ranked in the top 10 in rushing (Steven Jackson, 9th).

Here is how the Colts have fared against opposing runners:

Wk	RB	Team	Carries	Yards	Av.	TDs
1	Jamal Lewis	BAL	16	48	3.0	0
2	Fred Taylor	JAX	16	81	5.1	0
3	Reuben Droughns	CLE	22	76	3.5	0
4	Jarrett Payton	TEN	4	37	9.3	0
5	Kevan Barlow	SF	18	99	5.5	0
6	Steven Jackson	STL	17	88	5.2	1
7	Domanick Davis	HOU	28	98	3.5	1
8	BYE	-	-	-	-	-
Avg. per game (only primary RB)			17	69	4.0	0.3

The Brady Factor:

Tom Brady played solid last Sunday night vs. Buffalo, and much of that can be attributed to the improved play of the offensive line, which gave him ample time to make passes, unlike the Denver game in which he was getting hit regularly. In each of the Patriots wins, Brady has bested a QB rating of 80.0 and a completion percentage of 60%. In the games in which he has not attained these benchmarks, they are 0-3.

Here are Brady’s numbers week by week:

Wk	Opponent	Att/comp	Yards	Pct	TDs	Int	Rate
1	Oakland	24/48	306	63.2%	2	0	105.8
2	Carolina	23/44	270	52.3%	1	1	69.3
3	Pittsburgh	31/41	372	75.6%	0	1	92.7
4	San Diego	19/32	224	59.4%	1	1	78.1
5	Atlanta	22/27	350	81.5%	3	1	140.4
6	Denver	24/46	299	52.2%	1	0	79.9
7	BYE	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	Buffalo	14/21	199	66.7%	1	0	113.0

The key to getting crisp passes off will be to slow Freeney, who will probably be double teamed for the majority of the game. Kazcur will surely be in over his head if he doesn’t get help form a tight end.

Colts Pass Defense:

The pass defense of the Colts looks great when you look at the numbers (an AFC high 26 sacks, 2nd with 12 INT’s, and 1st in pass TD’s allowed with 5.) only it lacks substance. It’s no secret that the Indy hasn’t had the toughest schedule thus far, (17-34 opponents record, compared to 31-21 by the Pats opponents) the highest rated passer they’ve faced (Marc Bulger, 90.8) played only about a quarter and a half before hurting his shoulder, and the next highest is Steve McNair with 83.8.

The Colts play a lot of Cover 2, so most of the time, safeties Mike Doss and Bob Sanders will be playing off the ball and helping corners Jason David and Nick Harper on the deep outside. Brady will be able to take advantage of this with the play action, short slants and hooks to Deion Branch and David Givens, as well as deep routes to Daniel Graham and Ben Watson if he is in the lineup.

Here is how opposing QB’s have vs. the Colts weekly:

Wk	QB	Opp	Att/comp	Yards	Pct	TDs	Int	Rate
1	Boller/Wright	BAL	34/54	355	62.9 %	1	3	65.0
2	Byron Leftwich	JAX	16/29	198	55.2%	0	0	76.0
3	Trent Dilfer	CLE	22/29	208	75.9%	0	0	95.2
4	Steve McNair	TEN	28/37	220	75.7%	1	1	87.7
5	Alex Smith	SF	9/23	74	39.1%	0	4	8.5
6	Bulger/Martin	STL	22/39	255	79.3%	2	3	86.7
7	David Carr	HOU	6/9	48	66.7%	1	1	77.3

Colts Edgerrin James:

This year Edgerrin James has been more of the offensive catalyst than Peyton Manning. James is averaging a staggering 4.9 yards per carry and already has 7 TD’s. He had 9 all of last season. Behind one of the game’s best offensive lines, the Colts are committing more to the run this season than last. So far 52% of the plays called have been runs, compared to 44.2% in 2004. Not to take anything away from James, but once again opponents strength comes into question. The only defense the Colts have faced ranked in the top 10 in rush defense is Baltimore, coming in at 9th in the league.

Here is James’ numbers game by game:

Wk	Team	Carries	Yards	Av.	TDs
1	Baltimore	23	88	3.8	0
2	Jacksonville	27	128	4.7	0
3	Cleveland	27	108	4.0	1
4	Tennessee	21	90	4.3	0
5	San Francisco	21	105	5.0	1
6	St. Louis	23	143	6.2	3
7	Houston	21	139	6.6	2
Avg per game		23	114	4.9	1.0

Patriots Rush Defense:

The dual threat that James presents will be a challenge for the Pats’ defenders. Tesy Bruschi may have the task of spying James, as he does have the adequate speed to cover him in the flat. Between the tackles, NT Vince Wilfork will have to do a better job of pushing his blocker into the backfield to create problems.

Here is how opponents RB’s have done vs. the Pats:

Wk	RB	Team	Carries	Yards	Av.	TDs
1	Lamont Jordan	OAK	18	70	3.9	0
2	Stephen Davis	CAR	25	77	3.1	3
3	Willie Parker	PIT	17	55	3.2	0
4	LaDainian Tomlinson	SD	25	134	5.4	2
5	Warrick Dunn	ATL	19	83	4.4	0
6	Anderson/Bell	DEN	28	171	6.1	2
7	BYE	-	-	-	-	-
8	Willis McGahee	BUF	31	136	4.4	0
Avg. per game (only primary RB)			23	104	4.5	1.0

Colts Manning Factor:

After an otherworldly 2004 campaign in which he threw for 4557 yards and 49 TD’s , Peyton Manning is more on pace to reach his average season numbers (not including ’04) of 4147 pass yards and 28 TD passes, which aren’t too shabby either.

Here’s his game-by-game breakdown:

Wk	Opponent	Att/comp	Yards	Pct	TDs	Int	Rate
1	Baltimore	21/36	254	58.3%	2	0	98.6
2	Jacksonville	13/28	122	46.4%	0	1	44.0
3	Cleveland	19/23	228	82.6%	0	1	89.9
4	Tennessee	20/27	264	74.1%	4	0	144.1
5	San Francisco	23/31	255	74.2%	1	2	82.1
6	St. Louis	22/32	191	68.8%	2	0	105.1
7	Houston	21/27	237	77.8%	2	1	112.5
8	BYE	-	-	-	-	-	-

Patriots Pass Defense:

It is an absolute must for the Patriots defensive line to disrupt Manning, which is not an easy task. Manning has been sacked just 5 times all year. If Richard Seymour is available this week, it will help a unit that has brought down the QB just 13 times and recorded just 2 interceptions, the second coming last week courtesy of Assante Samuel. Given the situation in the secondary, don’t be surprised to see blitzes coming from all angles, including the corners, to mess up Manning timing and to force a much needed turnover.

Here’s the game-by-game break down of opposing QB’s vs. the Pats:

Wk	QB	Opp	Att/comp	Yards	Pct	TDs	Int	Rate
1	Kerry Collins	OAK	18/39	265	46.2 %	3	0	94.5
2	Jake Delhomme	CAR	11/26	154	42.3%	0	1	46.0
3	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	12/28	216	42.6%	2	0	93.7
4	Drew Brees	SD	19/24	248	79.2%	2	0	137.5
5	Matt Schaub	ATL	18/34	298	52.9%	3	0	112.1
6	Jake Plummer	DEN	17/24	262	70.8%	2	0	134.4
7	Kelly Holcomb	BUF	20/33	263.	60.6%	1	1	83.3

Injury Impact:

The Patriots will likely be without starting defensive end Richard Seymour who has missed significant playing time due to a knee injury. If Seymour cannot play, Jarvis Green, and Marquise Hill are expected to fit into the rotation. Green has demonstrated the ability to perform well in Seymour's absence, but the advantage favors the Colts.

Another big playmaker expected to be questionable for playing time is RB Corey Dillon who has been hampered by leg injuries. Dillon was supposed to sit out of last Sunday's game against the Bills, but an injury to FB Patrick Pass forced Dillon (the only healthy RB) to play. Since Pass is injured, Kevin Faulk is out and Dillon is still recovering, the team signed FB Heath Evans and RB Mike Cloud this week. Both should see playing time in place of Dillon and Pass.

Final Thoughts:

The Patriots have major injury concerns. Their secondary is banged up and playing a number of rookies or street free agents no other team wanted. This is a defining moment for the Colts franchise. If Indianapolis is ever going to get the proverbial monkey off their back, this would be the game to do it. The Colts have every statistical advantage headed into this rematch, if they cannot find a way to beat an injury riddled, vulnerable New England team, then they may never get over the hump this season.

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Patriots Insider Jon Scott contributed to this report.

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