At 6-5, the Patriots are in first place in the NFL’s worst division, the AFC East. With no true threat in the division and a moderately easy five game schedule to close out the season, New England needs to focus on forming a solid, healthy nucleus of players to gear up for a playoff run. The Patriots have only strung together one winning streak this season when they defeated both Miami (Nov. 13) and New Orleans (Nov. 20) by a single touchdown and need to start building momentum. Unless Corey Dillon returns to the lineup, Tom Brady’s ability to control the game will be crucial against the Jets. Brady has a knack for following up a bad game (22/40, 248 yds, 4 int against Kansas City) with anger and excellence.
Brady’s Impact:
Without Corey Dillon, the Patriots rushing attack is flat. That being said, Tom Brady needs to be at his best every game for the Patriots to win. New England is winless this year in games where Brady QB rating is below 80. There is no better time for Brady to have a big game than after his worst performance of the season. Against Kansas City, Brady threw a season high four interceptions and had a dismal rating of 42.5. Every time Brady has had a sub-80 rating game this season, he has followed up with a rating 20+ points better in the next game. Although the Jets have allowed just 173.5 passing yards per game this season, Brady is the man to watch on Sunday.
Brady’s numbers week by week:
|
Wk |
Opponent |
Att/comp |
Yards |
Pct |
TDs |
Int |
Rate |
|
1 |
Oakland |
24/48 |
306 |
63.2% |
2 |
0 |
105.8 |
|
2 |
Carolina |
23/44 |
270 |
52.3% |
1 |
1 |
69.3 |
|
3 |
Pittsburgh |
31/41 |
372 |
75.6% |
0 |
1 |
92.7 |
|
4 |
San
Diego |
19/32 |
224 |
59.4% |
1 |
1 |
78.1 |
|
5 |
Atlanta |
22/27 |
350 |
81.5% |
3 |
1 |
140.4 |
|
6 |
Denver |
24/46 |
299 |
52.2% |
1 |
0 |
79.9 |
|
7 |
BYE |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
8 |
Buffalo |
14/21 |
199 |
66.7% |
1 |
0 |
113.0 |
|
9 |
Indianapolis |
22/33 |
265 |
66.7% |
3 |
0 |
121.4 |
|
10 |
Miami |
21/36 |
275 |
58.3% |
2 |
2 |
77.9 |
|
11 |
New
Orleans |
15/29 |
222 |
51.7% |
3 |
0 |
111.6 |
|
12 |
Kansas
City |
22/40 |
248 |
55.0% |
1 |
4 |
42.5 |
Vital to the Jets success in slowing Brady will be the play of defensive ends Shaun Ellis and John Abraham. If Brady has time to step back and locate his receivers, he will pick apart the troubled Jets secondary.
Jets Pass Defense:
The pass defense of the Jets looks good on paper (4th in yards allowed with 173.5, fifth in total passing yards allowed with 1909) but has struggled of late. The past two games, the Jets have not recorded an interception and have watched quarterbacks complete around 70% of their passes. It will not get any easier for New York facing Tom Brady, who leads the NFL with 3030 passing yards. Brady also owns a 90.5 QB rating. The Jets are winless when the opposing quarterback reaches that mark. DC David Barrett will likely be missing again this week for the Jets. Ty Law is facing his former team for the first time and will likely be paired against Deon Branch, who leads the Patriots with 60 receptions and 756 receiving yards.
How opposing QB’s have faired vs. the Jets this season:
|
Wk |
QB |
Opp |
Att/comp |
Yards |
Pct |
TDs |
Int |
Rate |
|
1 |
Trent
Green |
KC |
15/26 |
200 |
57.7 % |
0 |
1 |
66.2 |
|
2 |
Gus Frerotte |
MIA |
20/43 |
177 |
46.5% |
1 |
1 |
56.1 |
|
3 |
Byron Leftwich |
JAX |
16/23 |
177 |
69.6% |
2 |
1 |
103.0 |
|
4 |
Anthony Wright |
BAL |
15/21 |
144 |
71.4% |
0 |
1 |
70.3 |
|
5 |
Brian Griese |
TB |
27/42 |
226 |
64.3% |
0 |
1 |
68.2 |
|
6 |
Kelly
Holcomb |
BUF |
18/26 |
172 |
69.2% |
2 |
2 |
80.9 |
|
7 |
Michael
Vick |
ATL |
11/26 |
116 |
42.3% |
0 |
3 |
16.3 |
|
8 |
BYE |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
9 |
Drew
Brees |
SD |
20/27 |
270 |
74.1% |
1 |
1 |
102.4 |
|
10 |
Jake
Delhomme |
CAR |
10/20 |
119 |
50.0% |
1 |
2 |
45.6 |
|
11 |
Jake
Plummer |
DEN |
18/26 |
225 |
69.2% |
0 |
0 |
95.8 |
|
12 |
Aaron Brooks |
NO |
17/23 |
181 |
73.9% |
3 |
0 |
136.1 |
Patriots Rushing Attack:
New England is coming off its second worst rushing game of the season against Kansas City. The Patriots ran for only 44 yards on a season low 10 carries. With Corey Dillon out of the lineup, the Patriots were forced to turn to Patrick Pass, who picked up a measly 26 yards on 8 carries (one touchdown). Tim Dwight also ran the ball twice for 17 yards. The Pats released reserve tailback Mike Cloud earlier this week, possibly to make room for the return of either Dillon or Kevin Faulk. Otherwise, Pass will likely share time with FB Heath Evans. Dillon has suggested a possible return against the Jets since missing time with a high ankle sprain and a hurt calf he suffered three weeks ago at Miami. Dillon’s return could dramatically change the outlook of the game for New England, as the Jets are allowing 136.9 yards per game on the ground. New England has ran for just one touchdown in the last four games.
A look at New England’s rushing attack, game by game:
|
Wk |
Team |
Carries |
Yards |
Av. |
TDs |
|
1 |
Oakland |
28 |
74 |
2.6 |
2 |
|
2 |
Carolina |
16 |
39 |
2.4 |
0 |
|
3 |
Pittsburgh |
29 |
74 |
2.6 |
2 |
|
4 |
San
Diego |
15 |
69 |
4.6 |
1 |
|
5 |
Atlanta |
29 |
140 |
4.8 |
1 |
|
6 |
Denver |
17 |
78 |
4.6 |
1 |
|
7 |
Bye |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
8 |
Buffalo |
21 |
89 |
4.2 |
2 |
|
9 |
Indianapolis |
13 |
39 |
3.0 |
0 |
|
10 |
Miami |
24 |
92 |
3.8 |
0 |
|
11 |
New
Orleans |
29 |
127 |
4.4 |
0 |
|
12 |
Kansas
City |
10 |
44 |
4.4 |
1 |
|
TOTALS |
231 |
865 |
3.7 |
10 |
Jets Rush Defense:
The Jets have allowed the opposing running back to rush for over 100 yards in four of the last six games. Although these four running backs were tough (McGahee, Dunn, Tomlinson, Anderson), a healthy Corey Dillon could cause similar problems for the Jets. Last year, Dillon ran all over the Jets, putting up 204 yards on 51 carries in two contests. If Dillon sits out, the Jets should have an easier time stopping Patrick Pass, Heath Evans and/or Kevin Faulk. Jonathan Vilma has already shown significant strides in his sophomore season. Through the first 11 games, the MLB leads the NFL with 121 tackles.
How the Jets have fared against opposing runners:
|
Wk |
RB |
Team |
Carries |
Yards |
Av. |
TDs |
|
1 |
L.Johnson, P.Holmes |
KC |
31 |
195 |
6.3 |
3 |
|
2 |
Lonnie Brown |
MIA |
12 |
35 |
2.9 |
0 |
|
3 |
Fred Taylor |
JAX |
37 |
98 |
2.6 |
1 |
|
4 |
Jamal Lewis |
BAL |
29 |
81 |
2.8 |
1 |
|
5 |
Michael Pittman |
TB |
13 |
46 |
3.5 |
0 |
|
6 |
Willis McGahee |
BUF |
29 |
143 |
4.9 |
1 |
|
7 |
Warrick Dunn |
ATL |
24 |
155 |
6.5 |
0 |
|
8 |
BYE |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
9 |
LaDainian Tomlinson |
SD |
25 |
107 |
4.3 |
3 |
|
10 |
Stephan
Jackson |
CAR |
27 |
81 |
3.0 |
1 |
|
11 |
Mike Anderson |
DEN |
26 |
113 |
4.3 |
3 |
|
12 |
A.Stecker,
A.Smith |
NO |
25 |
97 |
3.9 |
0 |
|
Avg.
per game (primary
RB) |
25.27 |
104.6 |
4.1 |
1.18 |
Jets Curtis Martin:
Curtis Martin has reached the 100 yard mark only once this season (Buffalo, 148), but New England is allowing 118.8 yards per game on the ground. In order to protect young QB Brooks Bollinger, Martin will be given a significant amount of carries, especially on first and second down. The former Patriot may be able to expose a defense that ranks dead last in the NFL in yards allowed on first down. Martin is averaging 3.4 yards per carry and has five TD’s this season, a far cry from the 4.6 yards per carry and 1697 rushing yards he accumulated in 2004-05. He also is averaging just .36 rushing TD’s a game, while his backup last year LaMont Jordan is averaging .82 rushing TD’s a game with Oakland. Corey Dillon is averaging .875 rushing TD’s in eight starts. Still, it will be up to Martin and the Jets offensive line to control the tempo and outcome of this game. Brooks Bollinger cannot be counted on as THE key player and offensive catalyst against New England. When Martin rushes for 75 yards or more against divisional opponents, his teams are 32-15.
Here are Martin’s numbers, game by game:
|
Wk |
Team |
Carries |
Yards |
Av. |
TDs |
|
1 |
Kansas
City |
20 |
57 |
2.9 |
0 |
|
2 |
Miami |
31 |
72 |
2.3 |
0 |
|
3 |
Jacksonville |
18 |
67 |
3.7 |
0 |
|
4 |
Baltimore |
13 |
30 |
2.3 |
0 |
|
5 |
Tampa
Bay |
23 |
59 |
2.6 |
2 |
|
6 |
Buffalo |
18 |
148 |
8.2 |
1 |
|
7 |
Atlanta |
14 |
28 |
2.0 |
1 |
|
8 |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
9 |
San
Diego |
21 |
72 |
3.4 |
1 |
|
10 |
Carolina |
19 |
75 |
3.9 |
0 |
|
11 |
Denver |
4 |
7 |
1.8 |
0 |
|
12 |
New
Orleans |
24 |
91 |
3.8 |
0 |
|
Avg
per game |
18.6 |
64.2 |
3.4 |
.36 |
Patriots Rush Defense:
The return of Richard Seymour has provided a much needed boost to the Patriots defensive line. With Seymour back and Teddy Bruschi working toward his old form, New England has two important pieces back to stop the run. If the Patriots have success against Martin, Brooks Bollinger will be forced to throw the ball, which could be problematic, even against a depleted New England secondary.
How opponent RB’s have done vs. the Pats:
|
Wk |
RB |
Team |
Carries |
Yards |
Av. |
TDs |
|
1 |
Lamont
Jordan |
OAK |
18 |
70 |
3.9 |
0 |
|
2 |
Stephen Davis |
CAR |
25 |
77 |
3.1 |
3 |
|
3 |
Willie Parker |
PIT |
17 |
55 |
3.2 |
0 |
|
4 |
LaDainian Tomlinson |
SD |
25 |
134 |
5.4 |
2 |
|
5 |
Warrick Dunn |
ATL |
19 |
83 |
4.4 |
0 |
|
6 |
Anderson/Bell |
DEN |
28 |
171 |
6.1 |
2 |
|
7 |
BYE |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
8 |
Willis McGahee |
BUF |
31 |
136 |
4.4 |
0 |
|
9 |
Edgerrin
James |
IND |
34 |
104 |
3.1 |
|