Patriots - Buccaneers: Statistically Speaking

For perhaps the first time this season, the Patriots are starting to look like a team with direction. The Pats have won two in a row and four of their last five. The roster is coming together at the right time. But there is one alarming statistic. New England is just 2-5 against teams with a winning record, and the Buccaneers come into Foxboro on Saturday at 9-4. Patriots Insider Ricky Popolizio takes a look at the numbers and shares some keys to the game.

New England (8-5) can now clinch the AFC East division title and a playoff spot with a win or a Miami loss in any of the final three regular season games. The Pats are almost certainly in the playoffs. But the key to postseason success still lies in the team’s ability to build momentum as the season winds down.

The 52-man roster is as healthy as it has been all year. Tedy Bruschi and Richard Seymour are playing better. Cornerback Ellis Hobbs has transformed from a questionable fill-in to among the teams most reliable. While New England is 2-5 against teams with winning records, the Bucs are 4-2 against the league’s elite, and 5-2 on the road. The matchup will be a good measuring stick to see just how far the Pats have come now in week 15.

The Corey Dillon Effect:

New England gained 494 total yards last Sunday against the Bills. Of those yards, 154 were on the ground, and 102 were made up by Corey Dillon. It was only the second time this season Dillon reached the century mark. However, Dillon has averaged over four yards per carry the past two games and has scored one touchdown in each outing.

Dillon was given 16 carries against the New York Jets two weeks ago and 22 carries against the Bills last week. His effectiveness against Buffalo allowed New England to maintain ball possession for almost 42 minutes of the game. Dillon appears to be getting better every week. He has shown no signs of wear and tear late in the season. Dillon and Kevin Faulk will be particularly important in bad weather on Sunday

Corey Dillon’s numbers, game by game:

Wk	Team	Carries	Yards	Av.	TDs
1	Oakland	23	63	2.7	2
2	Carolina	14	36	2.6	0
3	Pittsburgh	22	61	2.8	2
4	San Diego	14	63	4.5	1
5	Atlanta	23	106	4.6	0
6	Denver	DNP	-	-	-
7	Bye	-	-	-	-
8	Buffalo	21	72	4.0	2
9	Indianapolis	13	40	3.3	0
10	Miami	DNP	-	-	-
11	New Orleans	DNP	-	-	-
12	Kansas City	DNP	-	-	-
13	NY Jets	16	65	4.1	1
14	Buffalo	22	102	4.6	1
TOTALS		164	608	3.7	9

Corey Dillon started the season slow, averaging just 2.6 yards per carry in the first three games. Since coming back from a high ankle sprain and hurt calf, he has averaged 4.35 yards per carry and now is averaging 3.7 this season (T-31^st in NFL). His 83.5 yards per game over the last two outings is also much improved over his season average of 60.8 (26^th in NFL).

Buccaneers Rush Defense:

Tampa Bay has the fifth ranked rush defense in the league, as they are giving up 92.8 yards per game this season. However, the rush defense has been less impressive in the second half of the year. Through weeks 1-6, the Buccaneers allowed no 100 yard rushers, and primary running backs averaged just 38 yards a game.

Since week eight, the Bucs have allowed three 100 yard rushers and an average of 84.7 yards per game. Despite the slide in production, Tampa Bay has been stellar against the run the past three weeks. They have allowed zero rushing touchdowns and just 167 rushing yards in the last three games.

How the Buccaneers have fared against opposing runners:

Wk	RB	Team	Carries	Yards	Av.	TDs
1	Moe Williams	MIN	6	15	2.5	0
2	Willis McGahee	BUF	13	34	2.6	0
3	Ahman Green	GB	19	58	3.1	0
4	Kevin Jones	DET	12	38	3.2	1
5	Curtis Martin	NYJ	23	59	2.6	2
6	Ronnie Brown	MIA	9	24	2.2	1
7	BYE	-	-	-	-	-
8	Kevan Barlow	SF	26	101	3.9	0
9	Stephen Davis	CAR	12	48	4.0	2
10	Clinton Portis	WAS	23	144	6.3	1
11	Dunn/Duckett	ATL	32	133	4.2	1
12	Thomas Jones	CHI	25	72	2.9	0
13	Antowain Smith	NO	18	49	2.7	0
14	DeShaun Foster	CAR	14	46	3.3	0
Avg. per game (primary RB)			17.85	63.15	3.5	0.62

Brady’s Impact:

Tom Brady was the man against Buffalo. He threw for 329 yards and two touchdowns. All that happened after Brady hurt his left leg on a three yard touchdown run in the first quarter.

Brady also improved on many impressive records: 11-1 when passing for over 300 yards, 19-0 when the temperature is less than 40 degrees, 29-4 in games played after Thanksgiving. Sports Illustrated’s Sportsman of the Year even made a block (although he was penalized) on a reverse. He has completed over 70% of his passes and earned QB ratings above 90 in his last two outings. The Buccaneers have not allowed an opposing QB to reach either of Brady’s recent marks over the last three games.

Tampa Bay is the only team that Brady has never played against. Brady is 24-6 when facing a team for the first time.

Brady’s numbers week by week:

Wk	Opponent	Att/comp	Yards	Pct	TDs	Int	Rate
1	Oakland	24/48	306	63.2%	2	0	105.8
2	Carolina	23/44	270	52.3%	1	1	69.3
3	Pittsburgh	31/41	372	75.6%	0	1	92.7
4	San Diego	19/32	224	59.4%	1	1	78.1
5	Atlanta	22/27	350	81.5%	3	1	140.4
6	Denver	24/46	299	52.2%	1	0	79.9
7	BYE	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	Buffalo	14/21	199	66.7%	1	0	113.0
9	Indianapolis	22/33	265	66.7%	3	0	121.4
10	Miami	21/36	275	58.3%	2	2	77.9
11	New Orleans	15/29	222	51.7%	3	0	111.6
12	Kansas City	22/40	248	55.0%	1	4	42.5
13	NY Jets	27/37	271	73.0%	0	0	93.4
14	Buffalo	29/38	329	76.3%	2	2	97.4

If Corey Dillon has trouble running the ball, Brady will have to throw more and that could play into the hands of Tampa Bay. Brady has thrown six interceptions in his last three games, and the Bucs have been very opportunistic when it comes to creating turnovers. However, Tom Brady is gaining a lot of yards through the air. His 3,630 passing yards leads the NFL.

Buccaneers Pass Defense:

Tampa Bay is allowing 178 passing yards per game, the fifth best mark in the NFL. New England’s passing offense is averaging 268.7 yards per game, the second most productive passing unit in the league. Something will have to give on Saturday. While Brady has been extremely productive lately, he has also thrown several interceptions. The Bucs have made eight picks in the last six games and will capitalize if Brady makes mistakes.

Tampa Bay has several big time playmakers on defense. Simeon Rice is having an outstanding year and currently has nine sacks and one interception. Ronde Barber, who had three interceptions two weeks ago against New Orleans, has five total picks. Fellow cornerback Brian Kelly has four interceptions. Shelton Quarles and Derrick Brooks have combined for 204 tackles. All of these playmakers make the up league’s third best defense (5^th best pass defense). It will be a battle between the Bucs’ excellent pass defense and the Patriots’ second ranked passing offense.

How opposing QB’s have faired vs. the Buccaneers this season:

Wk	QB	Opp	Att/comp	Yards	Pct	TDs	Int	Rate
1	Daunte Culpepper	MIN	22/33	233	66.7 %	0	3	49.2
2	J.P. Losman	BUF	11/28	113	39.3%	0	0	51.6
3	Brett Favre	GB	14/24	195	58.3%	2	3	72.7
4	Joey Harrington	DET	15/27	137	55.6%	0	0	69.5
5	Vinny Testaverde	NYJ	13/19	163	68.4%	0	1	72.9
6	Gus Frerotte	MIA	21/43	267	48.8%	0	0	68.7
7	BYE	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	Ken Dorsey	SF	7/18	40	38.9%	0	0	47.0
9	Jake Delhomme	CAR	11/18	216	61.1%	1	0	121.5
10	Mark Brunell	WAS	23/35	226	65.7%	2	2	79.0
11	Michael Vick	ATL	21/38	306	55.3%	2	0	99.2
12	Kyle Orton	CHI	14/28	134	50.0%	1	1	60.7
13	Aaron Brooks	NO	18/34	215	52.9%	0	4	33.0
14	Jake Delhomme	CAR	21/33	220	63.6%	1	1	80.4

Tom Brady completed 73% of his passes two weeks ago against the Jets and 76.3% last week against Buffalo. Tampa Bay has not allowed an opposing quarterback to complete over 70% of their passes all season long. Also, the Bucs have only allowed two QB’s to reach a rating of 90 or above. Brady has surpassed that mark in eight of 13 games.

Buccaneers Cadillac Williams :

When Cadillac Williams is sufficiently handed the ball, he runs all over opposing defenses. Only twice this year has Williams not reached the century mark when given 18 carries or more. His 924 rushing yards this season is 14^th in the NFL and his 84 yards per game is 12^th.

After a quick start where Williams ran for 434 yards in the first three games of the season, he was slowed by foot and hamstring injuries. He missed weeks 5 and 6 and received only 45 carries in weeks 4, 8, 9 and 10 combined. Since week 11, Williams has gotten back on track with 408 yards (4.65 avg per carry) and three touchdowns in the last four games. However, the young back will be challenged by a revamped Patriots rush defense that has allowed an incredible 55 total rushing yards in the last two games.

Here are Williams’ numbers, game by game:

Wk	Team	Carries	Yards	Av.	TDs
1	Minnesota	27	148	5.5	1
2	Buffalo	24	128	5.3	1
3	Green Bay	37	158	4.3	0
4	Detroit	11	13	1.2	0
5	New York Jets	DNP	-	-	-
6	Miami	DNP	-	-	-
7	BYE	-	-	-	-
8	San Francisco	13	20	1.5	0
9	Carolina	11	29	2.6	0
10	Washington	10	20	2.0	0
11	Atlanta	19	116	6.1	1
12	Chicago	20	84	4.2	0
13	New Orleans	22	96	4.4	0
14	Carolina	29	112	3.9	2
TOTALS		223	924	4.1	5

Patriots Rush Defense:

The New England Patriots have excelled in stopping the run the past two weeks. The Bills gained only 14 yards on 12 carries (1.2 avg) against the Pats in week 14. The 14 yards on the ground were the second fewest allowed in the history of the franchise. The previous week against the Jets, the Patriots allowed Curtis Martin and Co. only 41 yards.

The recent success in stopping the run can be attributed to a number of recent improvements. Richard Seymour and Rosevelt Colvin are together becoming a force on defense. They each had a sack against the Bills last Sunday. Colvin, who looks as explosive as he ever has in the NFL, has recorded a sack in three straight games. Tedy Bruschi has provided increased stability each week in the middle. Against the Bills, Bruschi deflected a Losman pass in the final quarter that led to a James Sanders interception for a touchdown. The Patriots defensive line has been stingy and is making plays.

How opponent RB’s have done vs. the Pats:

Wk	RB	Team	Carries	Yards	Av.	TDs
1	Lamont Jordan	OAK	18	70	3.9	0
2	Stephen Davis	CAR	25	77	3.1	3
3	Willie Parker	PIT	17	55	3.2	0
4	LaDainian Tomlinson	SD	25	134	5.4	2
5	Warrick Dunn	ATL	19	83	4.4	0
6	Anderson/Bell	DEN	28	171	6.1	2
7	BYE	-	-	-	-	-
8	Willis McGahee	BUF	31	136	4.4	0
9	Edgerrin James	IND	34	104	3.1	1
10	Ronnie Brown	MIA	14	64	4.6	0
11	Antowain Smith	NO	11	32	2.9	0
12	Larry Johnson	KC	31	119	3.8	1
13	Curtis Martin	NYJ	15	29	1.9	0
14	Willis McGahee	BUF	8	3	0.4	0
Avg. per game (only primary RB)			21.23	82.85	3.9	.69

The 32 rushing yards allowed to primary running backs (55 rushing yards total) Curtis Martin and Willis McGahee in two games combined is the same number of rushing yards the Pats allowed in their third best showing against New Orleans’ Antowain Smith.

Although the Pats have allowed more carries, yards, yards per carry, and rushing touchdowns than the Bucs this season, they have showed improvement. New England has allowed a primary back to rush for over 65 yards only once in their last five outings. This is significant, as the Pats were run all over by four 100 yard rushers in five games between weeks 4-9. Cadillac Williams, who has averaged 102 yards over the last four games, will be a real challenge for New England.

Chris Simms as the Buccaneers starter:

The Buccaneers have won four of their last five games because Chris Simms has been solid at quarterback (Williams has also run well). During that stretch, Simms has thrown only one interception and has a QB rating of 86.42. The two previous games against San Francisco and Carolina, Simms had a rating of 71.2 and 65.5. The Bucs lost both games.

Although Simms has only thrown for over 200 yards twice in his last five outings, it is evident that the Bucs are most successful with a good mix of run and pass. Against Carolina last Sunday, Simms had a career high 74.1% of his passes completed.  

Wide receiver Joey Galloway is having a tremendous season. He currently is fifth in the NFL in receiving yards (1114). Since Simms became the Bucs starter in week 8, he has found Galloway for 615 of his 1383 total passing yards (44.32%). Galloway is clearly Simms’ go-to-guy.

Simms’ game-by-game breakdown:

Wk	Opponent	Att/comp	Yards	Pct	TDs	Int	Rate
1	Minnesota	DNP	-	-	-	-	-
2	Buffalo	DNP	-	-	-	-	-
3	Green Bay	DNP	-	-	-	-	-
4	Detroit	DNP	-	-	-	-	-
5	New York Jets	DNP	-	-	-	-	-
6	Miami	6/10	69	60.0%	0	0	80.8
7	BYE	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	San Francisco	21/34	264	61.8%	1	2	71.2
9	Carolina	25/42	259	59.5%	1	2	65.5
10	Washington	15/29	279	51.7%	3	0	119.8
11	Atlanta	11/19	118	57.9%	0	1	54.3
12	Chicago	19/30	202	63.3%	0	0	82.9
13	New Orleans	12/21	123	57.1%	1	0	90.0
14	Carolina	20/27	138	74.1%	0	0	85.1

Patriots Pass Defense:

As cornerback Ellis Hobbs recently explained on WEEI, the Patriots’ pass defense has a symbiotic relationship with the run defense. When the D-line is successful not only in stopping the run, but also in pressuring the QB, the secondary is able to make more plays. This was evident against the Bills last week. A Tedy Bruschi deflection resulted in an interception returned for a touchdown by James Sanders. In the third quarter, Losman threw a bad pass that was picked off by Ellis Hobbs, who now leads the team with three interceptions this season. Asante Samuel also had a pick.

After picking off only one pass in the first six games of the season, New England has since made eight interceptions in seven games. These turnovers have been instrumental in the Patriots recent success.

The Pats have not faced the Bucs since Belichick’s first game as New England’s head coach in 2000. Chris Simms hasn’t thrown an interception in three games, but the Pats will look to reverse that trend by giving Tampa Bay some different looks. Rosevelt Colvin and Richard Seymour will need to put pressure on the young QB and improve a Patriots defense that is ranked 30^th in the NFL in sacks per pass play.

Despite recent improvement, New England still has the 31^st ranked pass defense in the NFL. But the Pats are giving up 248.8 yards a game now, as opposed to 267.5 prior to the win against the Jets.

Game-by-game break down of opposing QB’s vs. the Pats:

Wk	QB	Opp	Att/comp	Yards	Pct	TDs	Int	Rate
1	Kerry Collins	OAK	18/39	265	46.2 %	3	0	94.5
2	Jake Delhomme	CAR	11/26	154	42.3%	0	1	46.0
3	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	12/28	216	42.6%	2	0	93.7
4	Drew Brees	SD	19/24	248	79.2%	2	0	137.5
5	Matt Schaub	ATL	18/34	298	52.9%	3	0	112.1
6	Jake Plummer	DEN	17/24	262	70.8%	2	0	134.4
7	BYE
8	Kelly Holcomb	BUF	20/33	263.	60.6%	1	1	83.3
9	Payton Manning	IND	28/37	321	75.7%	3	1	117.1
10	Gus Frerotte	MIA	25/47	360	53.2%	2	1	83.6
11	Aaron Brooks	NO	27/50	343	54.0%	2	1	80.7
12	Trent Green	KC	19/26	323	73.1%	1	0	127.6
13	Brooks Bollinger	NYJ	15/37	135	40.5%	0	1	39.8
14	J.P. Losman	BUF	10/27	181	37.0%	1	3	33.6

After allowing opposing QB’s to pass for 300+ yards in four consecutive games, New England has allowed just 316 passing yards in the last two contests. The Pats have also kept opposing quarterback completion percentages below 50 and QB ratings below 40 in the last two weeks. Tampa Bay has allowed 435 passing yards the last two games.

Injury Impact:

Ben Watson, who has taken on a bigger role lately with Daniel Graham sidelined with a shoulder injury, is listed as questionable. If Graham and Watson are both out, Christian Fauria, who caught a touchdown past last weekend at Buffalo, will start at TE. Tampa Bay currently has no major injuries reported.

Final Thoughts:

The New England Patriots are beginning to look like a team that could become dangerous in the playoffs. A few weeks ago, it looked as if the Pats were certainly no longer among the league’s elite, but the team is finally taking shape.

Ellis Hobbs has played exceptionally well at cornerback. Rosevelt Colvin looks quick and strong. Corey Dillon does not look like a 31 year old back entering week 15 of the season. Richard Seymour has recently commented on how he feels the team looks much better now than it did earlier this season. The team has recently put up all-time highs on offense and given up all-time lows on defense.

All that being said, the Patriots are still an 8-5 playoff-bound team that is only 2-5 against teams with winning records. New England needs to win this game. If the Pats can’t beat the Bucs, they have no chance against the Colts, or maybe even the Bengals. One final crucial factor for Saturday’s game at Gillette Stadium: the game-time temperature will likely favor New England in a big way.

Ricky Popolizio is a regular contributor to Patriots Insider. For more of his past articles search the archives. To contact Ricky visit his bio page

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