Patriots - Jaguars: Statistically Speaking

The Patriots knew they had another chance at the Super Bowl after defeating Tampa Bay in week 15. At the same time, fans and critics again became believers. After losing to Miami last Sunday, the Pats knew the Jacksonville Jaguars would be their first playoff test. Both teams feel they haven't received the respect they deserve. The new four-game season begins now, and after resting most of their starters in week 17, both teams will head into Saturday's game healthy and ready to play.

Week 17 was in no way any indication of how either the New England Patriots or the Jacksonville Jaguars will play this coming weekend. Corey Dillon, Tedy Bruschi, Bethel Johnson, Daniel Graham, Jarvis Green, Asante Samuel, and Artrell Hawkins all sat out for the Pats. In the Jags season finale against Tennessee, Byron Leftwich, Fred Taylor, Greg Jones, Chris Naeole, Reggie Hayward and Paul Spicer were all inactive. Most, if not all of these impact players will be on the field Saturday in what is expected to be a close, physical game that has potential to come down to the wire.

What Tom Brady means to the New England Patriots:

Coach Belichick had Tom Brady in for just three series last Sunday against the Dolphins. Brady completed three of eight passes for 37 yards, one touchdown and one interception. The two-time Super Bowl MVP will be ready to go this Saturday against the Jags in the first of four games in the road to the championship. Brady finished the regular season with a career high 4,110 passing yards, and his 92.3 QB rating was just shy of his 92.6 rating in 2004. He played an MVP caliber season and was named to the Pro-Bowl for the third time.

Coming into Saturday's game, Brady sports a career 9-0 playoff record. It is in the late winter months, especially during the playoffs, when Brady truly shines. When the situation gets toughest, he remains calm, cool and poised. He will need to be at his best in the pocket against the tough pass rush of Jacksonville.

The weather report currently indicates a game-time temperature likely below 40 degrees on Saturday night. Brady is a perfect 20-0 under such conditions.

Brady’s numbers week by week:

Wk	Opponent	Att/comp	Yards	Pct	TDs	Int	Rate
1	Oakland	24/48	306	63.2%	2	0	105.8
2	Carolina	23/44	270	52.3%	1	1	69.3
3	Pittsburgh	31/41	372	75.6%	0	1	92.7
4	San Diego	19/32	224	59.4%	1	1	78.1
5	Atlanta	22/27	350	81.5%	3	1	140.4
6	Denver	24/46	299	52.2%	1	0	79.9
7	BYE	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	Buffalo	14/21	199	66.7%	1	0	113.0
9	Indianapolis	22/33	265	66.7%	3	0	121.4
10	Miami	21/36	275	58.3%	2	2	77.9
11	New Orleans	15/29	222	51.7%	3	0	111.6
12	Kansas City	22/40	248	55.0%	1	4	42.5
13	NY Jets	27/37	271	73.0%	0	0	93.4
14	Buffalo	29/38	329	76.3%	2	2	97.4
15	Tampa Bay	20/31	258	64.5%	3	0	122.8
16	NY Jets	18/29	185	62.1%	2	1	89.0
17	Miami	3/8	37	37.5%	1	1	52.6

When Brady posts a QB rating of 100 or above, he is 31-1.

Jaguars Pass Defense:

The Jaguars pass defense is allowing 184.1 yards per game through the air this season. But in the last five games, opposing QBs are throwing for an average of 229.4 yards, significantly more than the season average. Still, the Jags are the seventh best unit, having allowed 2,946 passing yards this season.

Despite giving up eight touchdown passes in the last five games, the Jags do have three consecutive games with an interception. Jacksonville is tied for seventh in the league with 19 picks. This ability to create turnovers begins and ends with the powerful defensive line, which has produced 47 sacks this season (T-3rd in NFL). Defensive ends Reggie Hayward (8.5 sacks) and Paul Spicer (7.5 sacks) have led the Jags effective pass rush. Defense tackles Marcus Stroud and John Henderson make perhaps the best duo in the league. This duo will be crucial to the outcome of Saturday's game, as they determine what kind of success Hayward and Spicer will have at pressuring Tom Brady into making bad decisions.

Terry Cousin and Rashean Mathis have been tough at the cornerback position. Mathis recorded a pick last week against Tennessee and Cousin had one two weeks ago against Houston. Cornerback Kenny Wright may miss Saturday's game after twisting his left leg against Tennessee.

Jaguars Pass Defense the last 5 games:

Wk	QB	Opp	Comp/At	Yards	Pct	TDs	Int	Rate
13	Charlie Frye	CLE	13/20	226	65.0%	2	0	136.7
14	Payton Manning	IND	24/36	324	66.7%	2	0	113.7
15	Alex Smith	SF	8/24	123	33.3%	0	1	33.9
16	David Carr	HOU	19/29	295	65.5%	2	1	107.7
17	B.Volek/M.Mauck	TEN	21/39	179	53.8%	2	1	63.9

Corey Dillon's Impact:

The Jaguars have been very good against the run lately. How good? No back has scored a touchdown in six games or rushed for 100 yards in nine. Still, the Patriots will insist on running the ball Saturday. If Dillon cannot get going early on, Tom Brady will look to spread the field with short, quick passes to create room for his running back.

Dillon should be fresh after sitting out in week 17. In the last four games he has started, Dillon has scored at least one touchdown. Against the Jets in week 16, he ran for two TDs. The Pats are undefeated in games when Dillon reaches the endzone twice.

New England is just 2-3 this season when Corey Dillon is out of the lineup. The Pats are also 0-3 in games that Dillon is given less than 15 carries. When he receives the ball more than 15 times, the Patriots are 8-0 this year. That is something to keep in mind.

Corey Dillon’s numbers, game by game:

Wk	Team	Carries	Yards	Av.	TDs
1	Oakland	23	63	2.7	2
2	Carolina	14	36	2.6	0
3	Pittsburgh	22	61	2.8	2
4	San Diego	14	63	4.5	1
5	Atlanta	23	106	4.6	0
6	Denver	DNP	-	-	-
7	Bye	-	-	-	-
8	Buffalo	21	72	4.0	2
9	Indianapolis	13	40	3.3	0
10	Miami	DNP	-	-	-
11	New Orleans	DNP	-	-	-
12	Kansas City	DNP	-	-	-
13	NY Jets	16	65	4.1	1
14	Buffalo	22	102	4.6	1
15	Tampa Bay	19	48	2.5	1
16	NY Jets	26	77	3.0	2
17	Miami	DNP	-	-	-
TOTALS		209	733	3.5	12

Dillon's 12 rushing touchdowns is tied for 5th best in the NFL. If the weather is bad on Saturday, the Pats will look to control the ball with Dillon. He has only fumbled once all year.

Jaguars Rush Defense:

The Jaguars rush defense is the 14th ranked unit in the league heading into the playoffs. Jacksonville is giving up an average of 106.8 rushing yards per game this season, significantly more than the 78.8 over the last five contests. Jacksonville has not allowed a primary running back to gain 100 yards or more since St. Louis' Stephan Jackson racked up 179 yards in week eight. Three backs (Jackson, Mike Anderson, Edgerrin James) reached 100 yards in the first seven games, but since the Jags have not allowed a primary back to put up 100 in nine contests.

Opposing backs have also seen a significant dip in their yards per carry against Jacksonville. The Jaguars finished the regular season allowing an average of 3.9 yards per carry. But over the last five games, that number has diminished to 3.5 YPC. Tampa Bay and San Diego, two of the NFL's top three run-stopping defenses during the regular season, allowed 3.5 yards per carry this season.

Leading the way for the Jags Rush D is linebacker Mike Peterson, who has recorded an NFL 9th best 132 tackles. He also has six sacks, three interceptions, two forced fumbles and a touchdown.

How the Jaguars have fared against their last 5 opposing runners:

Wk	RB	Team	Carries	Yards	Av.	TDs
13	Ruben Droughns	CLE	30	88	2.9	0
14	Edgerrin James	IND	30	93	3.1	0
15	Frank Gore	SF	19	79	4.2	0
16	Jonathan Wells	HOU	21	86	4.1	0
17	Travis Henry	TEN	13	48	3.7	0
Avg. per game (primary RB)			22.4	78.8	3.5	0

The Jaguars have not allowed a rushing touchdown since Chris Brown of Tennessee made a one-yard plunge into paydirt in week 11. The four rushing touchdowns allowed by Jacksonville this season is the lowest total in the NFL..

Jaguars Rushing Attack:

Both Fred Taylor and Greg Jones were out of the lineup last week against the Titans but are expected to return against New England. Running back LaBrandon Toefield filled the void left by Taylor and Jones last Sunday. The twenty-five year old received 25 carries and ran for a career high 102 yards, by far his most in a game this season. He also added a touchdown. It is unlikely Toefield will see much action against New England with Jacksonville's two main threats, Taylor and Jones, back in the mix.

Here are Taylor's numbers week-by-week:

Wk	Team	Carries	Yards	Av.	TDs
1	Seattle	20	76	3.8	0
2	Indianapolis	16	81	5.1	0
3	NY Jets	37	98	2.6	1
4	Denver	8	14	1.8	0
5	Cincinatti	24	132	5.5	0
6	Pittsburgh	DNP	-	-	-
7	BYE	-	-	-	-
8	St. Louis	22	165	7.5	1
9	Houston	12	48	4.0	0
10	Baltimore	DNP	-	-	-
11	Tennessee	6	-8	-1.3	0
12	Arizona	DNP	-	-	-
13	Cleveland	DNP	-	-	-
14	Indianapolis	10	19	1.9	0
15	San Francisco	17	61	3.6	0
16	Houston	22	101	4.6	1
17	Tennessee	DNP	-	-	-
TOTALS		194	787	4.1	3

Taylor, one of the NFL's premier backs, has had an injury prone career, and the 2005 season has been no different. Between weeks 10 and 14, Taylor started just two games and missed the other three because of a bruised right foot. However, Taylor has been effective this year when he has been healthy. In the seven games Taylor was given 15 carries or more, he averaged 102 rushing yards (4.67 avg.) and scored three touchdowns. Fortunately for Jacksonville, fullback Greg Jones has proven himself to be a viable threat at the running back position as well.

Here are Jones' numbers, game-by-game:

Wk	Team	Carries	Yards	Av.	TDs
1	Seattle	0	0	0	0
2	Indianapolis	3	29	9.7	0
3	NY Jets	4	7	1.8	0
4	Denver	1	2	2.0	0
5	Cincinatti	4	24	6.0	0
6	Pittsburgh	18	77	4.3	1
7	BYE	-	-	-	-
8	St. Louis	4	2	0.5	0
9	Houston	7	27	3.9	1
10	Baltimore	25	106	4.2	1
11	Tennessee	16	33	2.1	0
12	Arizona	23	78	3.4	1
13	Cleveland	27	103	3.8	0
14	Indianapolis	7	43	6.1	0
15	San Francisco	12	44	3.7	0
16	Houston	DNP	-	-	-
17	Tennessee	DNP	-	-	-
TOTALS		151	575	3.8	4

Jones has provided the Jags with an effective one-two punch this season. When Taylor has been out of the lineup or limited to less than fifteen carries, Jones has rushed for 469 yards (58.63 yards per game) on 124 carries (3.78 yards per carry) and four touchdowns in eight contests. When both Jones and Taylor were out in week 17, LaBrandon Toefield got the job done. The Jaguars have been rushing with efficiency all season long no matter what the situation. As a team, the Jags are ranked 10th in the NFL in rushing, averaging 122.4 yards per game.

Patriots Rush Defense:

"It's not only Fred Taylor. They have four backs. He is the focal point and he's their number one back, but you need to talk about [Greg] Jones and you can go right on down the line. There are other guys that can spell him and that makes that harder on us." This quote is from Mike Vrabel on January 3rd, as posted on patriots.com, referring to the challenge the Jags present the Patriots at the running back position. The Patriots will likely see both Taylor and Jones several times on Saturday, and maybe even a little of LaBrandon Toefield.

Although last week's game against Miami is not an accurate measuring stick of the Pats rush defense because many of the starters sat out, the team did allow 108 rushing yards, 19 more than they did over the previous four games. That being said, the Pats will have all their starters back on Saturday, including Tedy Bruschi, who has quickly recovered from an injury suffered against the Jets in week 16. Michael Felger of the Boston Herald reported this on January 4th.

If Bruschi and the Pats starters can contain Taylor, Jones and Co. as they did against opposing running backs throughout weeks 13-16 (opposing primary backs combined for 89 yards on 45 carries and no touchdowns), the Pats will force Byron Leftwich to make plays. That could be a problem for the Jags, especially if Leftwich displays rust after missing the last six games.

New England's rush D is currently ranked 8th in the NFL (98.8 yards per game), four spots down from the previous week. But starters Rosevelt Colvin, Richard Seymour, Mike Vrabel and Vince Wilfork will all be back at work Saturday and should help the Pats regain their recent run stopping ability.

How opponent RB’s have done vs. the Pats:

Wk	RB	Team	Carries	Yards	Av.	TDs
1	Lamont Jordan	OAK	18	70	3.9	0
2	Stephen Davis	CAR	25	77	3.1	3
3	Willie Parker	PIT	17	55	3.2	0
4	LaDainian Tomlinson	SD	25	134	5.4	2
5	Warrick Dunn	ATL	19	83	4.4	0
6	Anderson/Bell	DEN	28	171	6.1	2
7	BYE	-	-	-	-	-
8	Willis McGahee	BUF	31	136	4.4	0
9	Edgerrin James	IND	34	104	3.1	1
10	Lonnie Brown	MIA	14	64	4.6	0
11	Antowain Smith	NO	11	32	2.9	0
12	Larry Johnson	KC	31	119	3.8	1
13	Curtis Martin	NYJ	15	29	1.9	0
14	Willis McGahee	BUF	8	3	0.4	0
15	Cadillac Williams	TB	14	23	1.6	0
16	D.Blaylock/C.Houston	NYJ	8	34	4.8	0
17	Ricky Williams	MIA	28	108	3.9	1
Avg. per game (only primary RB)			20.4	77.6	3.8	.63

With the exception of Ricky Williams' performance last week against New England's second and third string players, no back had rushed for over 35 yards or for a touchdown over the previous four weeks.

Young QBs Leading the Jags:

The Jaguars have two young quarterbacks with the talent to lead the franchise in the right direction. But right now, one seems to be ahead of the other. As of midweek, it was been widely reported that Byron Leftwich will start against the Patriots on Saturday. Jacksonville head coach Jack Del Rio has defended his decision, saying that Leftwich gives his team the best opportunity to win the game. So unless things go affray for Leftwich in practice before gameday, David Garrard, who led the Jags to a 5-1 record in Leftwich's absence, will likely be seen watching and freezing from the bench. The Patriots also believe Leftwich will start on Saturday, but they are preparing for both mobile QBs.

Leftwich's last 5 games:

Wk	Opponent	Comp/Att	Yards	Pct	TDs	Int	Rate
6	Pittsburgh	19/35	177	54.3%	1	1	66.0
7	BYE	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	St. Louis	18/31	213	58.1%	2	1	87.2
9	Houston	19/25	218	76.0%	1	0	115.1
10	Baltimore	16/30	211	53.3%	1	0	86.9
11	Tennessee	22/38	258	57.9%	3	0	104.9

Over his last five games, Leftwich compiled the following numbers: completed 94/159 passes, 1077 yards, 59.92 completion percentage, eight touchdowns, two interceptions and a QB rating of 92.02. During that stretch, the Jaguars went 4-1, winning by a combined score of 126-86.

Garrards' last 5 games:

Wk	Opponent	Comp/Att	Yards	Pct	TDs	Int	Rate
13	Cleveland	11/20	116	55.0%	2	1	84.6
14	Indianapolis	26/35	250	74.3%	1	0	103.3
15	San Francisco	21/40	216	52.5%	0	0	68.3
16	Houston	18/31	292	58.1%	1	0	100.5
17	Tennessee	10/16	128	62.5%	0	0	87.5

Over his last five games, Garrard compiled the following numbers: completed 86/142 passes, 1002 yards, 60.48 completion percentage, four touchdowns, one interception and a QB rating of 88.84. During that stretch, the Jaguars went 4-1, winning by a combined score of 126-82.

The numbers put up by Leftwich and Garrard over their last five games are strikingly similar. The passing yards is within 75, the completion percentage is within one percent, the touchdown to interception ration is exactly the same (4:1) and the QB ratings are within four points. Even more remarkable is that as a team, Jacksonville went 4-1 with both Garrard and Leftwich and scored the same number of points (126). Even the defense achieved similar results (86 vs. 82 points against). So for Jack Del Rio and the Jaguars, should the argument be, if it isn't broken, don't fix it? Or, the original leader is always the right call? One way or another, the results will be criticized and critiqued after Saturday's game.

Patriots Pass Defense:

Once again, week 17 was not a good measuring stick for the Pats pass defense. Second and third stringers made life easy for Gus Frerotte and the Dolphins to march down the field on several occasions. Prior to week 17, the pats had limited opposing QBs to less than 200 yards in four straight games. But Frerotte's numbers put the Pats D back to the 31st rank in the NFL (231.4 yards per game). New England will need to perform as they did in weeks 13-16, when they allowed just 158.5 YPG in the air.

Jacksonville's QBs do not make many mistakes. Over each of their last five outings, both Leftwich and Garrard share a 4:1 touchdown to interception ratio. A large part of the Patriots recent success over the last ten games has been their ability to create turnovers (nine interceptions in the last 10 games). A rusty Byron Leftwich could be targeted by a New England squad looking to create points off of turnovers.

In the secondary, both Asante Samuel (5'10") and Artrell Hawkins (5'10") will be back in the lineup for New England after sitting out last week. One major challenge for the Pats will be for Ellis Hobbs (5'9"), Eugene Wilson (5'10"), Samuel (5'10") and Hawkins (5'10") to defend Jacksonville's big receiver corps. Jimmy Smith (6'1"), Ernest Wilford (6'4"), Matt   Jones (6'6") and Kyle Brady (6'6") will all be tough for the Pats secondary to match up against.

Game-by-game break down of opposing QB’s vs. the Pats:

Wk	QB	Opp	Att/comp	Yards	Pct	TDs	Int	Rate
1	Kerry Collins	OAK	18/39	265	46.2 %	3	0	94.5
2	Jake Delhomme	CAR	11/26	154	42.3%	0	1	46.0
3	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	12/28	216	42.6%	2	0	93.7
4	Drew Brees	SD	19/24	248	79.2%	2	0	137.5
5	Matt Schaub	ATL	18/34	298	52.9%	3	0	112.1
6	Jake Plummer	DEN	17/24	262	70.8%	2	0	134.4
7	BYE
8	Kelly Holcomb	BUF	20/33	263.	60.6%	1	1	83.3
9	Payton Manning	IND	28/37	321	75.7%	3	1	117.1
10	Gus Frerotte	MIA	25/47	360	53.2%	2	1	83.6
11	Aaron Brooks	NO	27/50	343	54.0%	2	1	80.7
12	Trent Green	KC	19/26	323	73.1%	1	0	127.6
13	Brooks Bollinger	NYJ	15/37	135	40.5%	0	1	39.8
14	J.P. Losman	BUF	10/27	181	37.0%	1	3	33.6
15	Chris Simms	TB	21/34	155	61.8%	0	0	72.6
16	Bollinger/Testaverde	NYJ	14/26	163	53.8%	2	1	91.4
17	Gus Frerotte	MIA	22/35	239	62.9%	1	0	92.4

Injury Impact:

Cornerback Kenny Wright will likely be out of the Jaguars lineup after twisting his left knee last week against the Titans. After a week of rest for most starters, every key player is expected back in the lineup for both the Pats and Jaguars.

Final Thoughts:

According to an article in the Orlando Sentinel by Fred Seely on January 3rd, Jacksonville's head coach Jack Del Rio said "We built this team to function outdoors in January. We have a collection of mudders.'' If this is to be true on Saturday, the Patriots will lose one of their biggest advantages of playing at home in cold weather conditions. Still, the Pats are 9-0 in snow games at Foxborough, and they do have other statistical advantages at home, in the cold, and in the playoffs.

New England has won 15 of its last 16 games when the game-time temperature is 35 degrees or colder. The Pats have also not lost back-to-back games in 49 contests. As do the Patriots step up their game in the playoffs, Bill Belichick steps up his coaching. He is the winningest coach in NFL playoff history with a 10-1 record (.909 pct). The Patriots currently share the league's all-time longest playoff winning streak at nine games. Only Vince Lombardi's Green Bay Packers of 1961-62 and 1965-67 have also won nine straight postseason contests.

The Pats are 4-1 all-time against Jacksonville, including a 3-0 record at home. However, this is a new year and a new game, and the Jaguars have not faced the Patriots since 2003. Both teams are strong on both sides of the ball, and both teams feel like they haven't been given due respect this season. This game will be very close, very physical, and won by the team that executes better.

Ricky Popolizio is a regular contributor to Patriots Insider. For more of his past articles search the archives. To contact Ricky visit his bio page

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