Sizing Up The Patriots-Browns Matchup
By Rich “Mell-o” Lyons“Do it to him before he does it to you.” ~On The Waterfront
Here’s a look at what to expect in Sunday’s game between New England and Cleveland:
Trends:
Cleveland:
Since 2005:
- 0-4 when more than 10 point underdogs (current line: NE -16.5)
- 0-10 after winning the previous week’s game
- 2-0 vs. AFC East opponents
- 4-13 on the road
- 1-3 after scoring 25+ points
New England:
Since 2005:
- 12-6 in home games
- 10-4 when the over/under is < 40
- 3-0 vs. NFC North opponents
- 5-1 when favored by 10 or more
- 16-5 after allowing 17 or less points
Stats:
|
|
TOTAL OFFENSE |
|
|
|
CLE |
NE |
|
POINTS/GAME |
27.3
(6th) |
37
(2nd) |
|
YARDS/GAME |
347.5
(11th) |
431.8
(2nd) |
|
TURNOVERS |
9
(21st) |
4
(5th) |
|
PENALTIES |
27
(22nd) |
15
(4th) |
|
PENALTY YARDS |
201
(22nd) |
123
(7th) |
|
3RD DOWN |
43.40%
(9th) |
51.30%
(16th) |
|
4TH DOWN |
50%
(T-6th) |
50%
(T-6th) |
|
SCORING EFFICIENCY |
36.7%
(8th) |
57.9%
(1st) |
|
|
TOTAL DEFENSE |
|
|
|
CLE |
NE |
|
OPP. POINTS/GAME |
29.5
(28th) |
12.0
(4th) |
|
OPP. TOTAL
YARDS/GAME |
427.5
(31st) |
226
(1st) |
|
TURNOVERS FORCED |
9
(6th) |
4
(27th) |
|
OPP. 3RD DOWN |
44.80%
(31st) |
30.00%
(1st) |
|
OPP. 4TH DOWN |
57.10%
(30th) |
66.70%
(21st) |
|
OPP. SCORING
EFFICIENCY |
44.90%
(27th) |
19.50%
(3rd) |
Key Injuries:
Cleveland:
- Gary Baxter: banged-up knees; limited in practice
- Orpheus Roye: listed as questionable with a knee injury
- Eric Steinbach: neck injury; limited in practice
- Kellen Winslow: listed as probable; limited in practice
- Phil Dawson: Personal, did not practice
New England:
- Roosevelt Colvin: listed as questionable with an ankle injury
- Laurence Maroney: listed as questionable with a groin injury
- Donte’ Stallworth: knee injury; limited in practice
- Stephen Neal: Shoulder; limited in practice
- Dan Koppen: Ankle; limited in practice
Opponent Grades & Analysis:
|
|
PASS OFFENSE |
GRADE |
|
DEREK ANDERSON |
QB |
B- |
|
BRAYLON EDWARDS |
WR |
B+ |
|
JOE JUREVICIUS |
WR |
B |
|
TIM CARTER |
WR |
C |
|
KELLEN WINSLOW |
TE |
A- |
After replacing Charlie Frye to
start the season, Derek Anderson has played surprisingly well in his three
starts this season. Last week against Baltimore, Anderson was efficient, going
10/18 for 204 yards and two scores, one of which was a 78-yard connection to
Braylon Edwards. Edwards comes into the game against the Patriots averaging 94
yards/game. He is clearly the Browns’ deep-threat man, while Joe Jurevicius
plays more towards the short and middle of the field. Kellen Winslow has also
had a very productive year. Winslow has 80+ receiving yards in each of Cleveland’s
first four games. He is Anderson’s favorite target; so do not be surprised at
all if the Browns try to take advantage of an older Patriots linebacking unit
by testing the middle of the field in the early stages of the game.
|
|
RUSH OFFENSE |
GRADE |
|
JAMAL LEWIS |
RB |
B |
|
LAWRENCE VICKERS |
FB |
B- |
|
JOE THOMAS |
LT |
B+ |
|
ERIC STEINBACH |
LG |
A |
|
HANK FRALEY |
C |
B |
|
SETH MCKINNEY |
RG |
C+ |
|
KEVIN SHAFFER |
RT |
B+ |
The Browns rank right in the
middle of the league in terms of rushing yards per game (114.8). However, they
rank 6th in yards per carry (4.8), with a lot of that having to do
with their strong left side of the line. Joe Thomas, the Browns’’ first
selection in last year’s draft, has made an immediate impact on this unit.
Also, the offseason saw the Browns sign Eric Steinbach, who is one of the
better guards in the league. With those two playing together on the same side,
it could cause some problems for the Patriots’ defense. Outside of the game
against Cincinnati, Jamal Lewis has not been overly impressive. Still, he is a
very good power back, and runs downhill into the line as good as just about
anyone in the league.
|
|
RUSH DEFENSE |
GRADE |
|
ORPHEUS ROYE |
LDE |
B- |
|
ETHAN KELLY |
NT |
C |
|
ROBAIRE SMITH |
RDE |
B |
|
ANTWAN PEEK |
LOLB |
B- |
|
ANDRA DAVIS |
LILB |
B+ |
|
D'QWELL JACKSON |
RILB |
B |
|
KAMERION WIMBLEY |
ROLB |
B+ |
The Browns come into this game
30th in the league in terms of opposing rushing yards per game
(160). Despite an impressive victory at home last week, they did allow Willis McGahee to top the 100-yard plateau despite only having 14 carries (7.4
yards/carry). In fact, the Browns have allowed a 100-yard rusher in each of
their first four games (Willie Parker, Rudi Johnson, LaMont Jordan, McGahee).
This is clearly their biggest weakness on defense. With Willie McGinest listed
as probable, it may help their unit a little, but it will take more than that
to try and stop a team who is 2nd in rushing attempts (141) and 4th
in yards/game (157).
|
|
PASS DEFENSE |
GRADE |
|
ERIC WRIGHT |
LCB |
B- |
|
BRODNEY POOL |
FS |
B |
|
SEAN JONES |
SS |
B+ |
|
LEIGH BODDEN |
RCB |
B |
Opponents have attempted to pass
on the Browns all year long. With 152 opposing pass attempts, the Browns are
the #1 most targeted passing defense in the AFC. However, opponents have
completed just 61.2% of their passes. To put that into perspective, the
Patriots have allowed 61.5% of passes to be completed. However, the Browns
simply do not have any kind of pass rush to be able to put pressure on the
quarterback. They are 29th in sacks (4) and 31st in
opponent’s passing first downs (60).
Advantages:
When New England Has The Ball:
|
|
NE OFFENSE |
CLE DEFENSE |
ADV. |
|
RUN YARDS/GAME |
157
(4TH) |
160
(30TH) |
NE |
|
YARDS/CARRY |
4.5
(12TH) |
5.0
(29TH) |
NE |
|
RUSHING FIRST DOWNS |
43
(1ST) |
27
(20TH) |
NE |
|
RUSHING FUMBLES |
2
(16TH) |
4
(4TH) |
CLE |
|
PASS YARDS/GAME |
274.8
(5TH) |
267.5
(30TH) |
NE |
|
COMPLETION % |
79.2%
(1ST) |
61.2%
(13TH) |
NE |
|
PASSING FIRST DOWNS |
56
(5TH) |
60
(31ST) |
NE |
|
QB RATING |
134.7
(1ST) |
101.2
(27TH) |
NE |
|
INTERCEPTIONS |
2
(8TH) |
3
(19TH) |
NE |
|
SACKS |
3
(2ND) |
4
(29TH) |
NE |
Overall Advantage: New England
When Cleveland Has The Ball:
|
|
CLE OFFENSE |
NE DEFENSE |
ADV. |
|
RUN YARDS/GAME |
114.8
(15TH) |
69.8
(3RD) |
NE |
|
YARDS/CARRY |
4.8
(6TH) |
3.4
(5TH) |
PUSH |
|
RUSHING FIRST DOWNS |
17
(28TH) |
16
(5TH) |
NE |
|
RUSHING FUMBLES |
3
(24TH) |
0
(29TH) |
PUSH |
|
PASS YARDS/GAME |
232.8
(10TH) |
156.3
(4TH) |
NE |
|
COMPLETION % |
51.6%
(31ST) |
61.5
(15TH) |
NE |
|
PASSING FIRST DOWNS |
45
(15TH) |
41
(13TH) |
PUSH |
|
QB RATING |
82.0
(18TH) |
75.3
(8TH) |
NE |
|
INTERCEPTIONS |
6
(26TH) |
5
(9TH) |
NE |
|
SACKS |
7
(14TH) |
11
(10TH) |
PUSH |
Overall Advantage: New England
Read more of Rich's pregame analysis in his Keys to the Game with the top matchup between these two.
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